# Forecast journal

- One page per entry: `YYYY-MM-DD.md`, written on the day, citing the data room readings it used, with a sibling `YYYY-MM-DD.html` (plain-html kit, self-contained) for reading and sharing. `YYYY-MM-DD-onepage.md/.html` is the one-page summary that prints on a single A4 sheet; the full entry keeps the supporting detail and an appendix explaining each watch metric. Regenerate the HTML after editing any entry with `make journal-html`.
- Every quantified call also goes in `forecasts.csv` (one row per call). Fill in `outcome` and `hit` on the resolve date.
- Never edit a past entry. To revise, write a new dated entry and add new rows to the CSV.
- Review quarterly against `report/dataroom.html`, and score annually: how often ranges caught the outcome (aim about 75%), and Brier scores for the regime probabilities. Keep data-based and gut calls as separate forecasters so you can see which is better calibrated.