# Changelog

Newest first. One line per change that matters to a reader; details are in the linked files.

| Date | Change |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Research data report: `dataroom/research/2026-10-02/data_report.pdf` / `.html` (42 pages, 43 tables, 15 charts). Every download of 2 Oct 2026 as wide tables (month and decade grids, years × countries) with charts and provenance, in the audit-pack style. Built by `make research-data-pdf` |
| 2026-10-02 | Answers to ten questions: `00-overview/04-answers-2026-10-02.md` / `.pdf` (30 pages, 25 tables, 5 charts). Data re-fetched from BoE, ONS, MoF Japan, FRED, OECD, IMF and World Bank in `dataroom/research/2026-10-02/`. Main findings: the UK 2022 action was a backstop, not a cap; the 4–5.5% range had no workings and is rebuilt as 3.9–5.4%; a 3–4% yield does not by itself imply regime A |
| 2026-10-02 | Scheduled refresh had never run (Mac off at 07:00). The launchd job now also starts at login; `refresh.sh` runs at most once a day, not before 07:00, after waiting for the network |
| 2026-10-02 | Data room tools: `make show` (series side by side, CSV/Excel export), `make changes` (register against a git commit), `make report-pdf` (`report/dataroom-audit.pdf` with a list of all 88 tables) |
| 2026-10-01 | Essentials PDF: `00-overview/essentials.pdf` (49 pages, table of contents): introduction, build record, framework, 1 Oct 2026 journal, back-test method, report and confidence note, glossary. Built by `make essentials-pdf` |
| 2026-10-01 | Folder reorganised into numbered sections (`00-overview` to `03-backtests`); master `README.md`, how-to-update guide, build record, glossary and this changelog added; root `.gitignore`; git repository created |
| 2026-10-01 | Confidence note: `03-backtests/02-confidence-for-2026.md` (the vote missed both turns it has faced, 2002 and 2021; use it as confirmation, lead with Layer 2 and direction) |
| 2026-10-01 | 2002 back-test: `03-backtests/backtest-2002.md`. Result: no A call in May 2002 (A1 B2 C2). Method in `03-backtests/01-how-the-backtest-was-done.md` |
| 2026-10-01 | Data room: five back-test support series (Fed Board TIPS curve, `BAA10Y`, `DFEDTAR`); ALFRED vintage helper; fix to the 2003 lookback in the regime vote (live B count 57 → 52 months) |
| 2026-10-01 | Journal: watch-metric appendix (A1–A9) and 5y5y month-end grid added to `dataroom/journal/2026-10-01.md` |
| 2026-10-01 | Journal: first entry `2026-10-01` (full and one-page, md and html) and `forecasts.csv` |
| 2026-10-01 | Data room built: catalog of 86 series, 9 sources, checks, cross-checks, register, charts, report, sign-off, daily launchd job, Cursor rule |
| 2026-10-01 | Framework: `02-framework/rates-regime-framework-2026.md` and `.html` from the three notes in `01-source-notes/` |